National Weather Service (2024)

Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --181FXUS61 KPHI 180638AFDPHIArea Forecast DiscussionNational Weather Service Mount Holly NJ238 AM EDT Sun Aug 18 2024.SYNOPSIS...
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A warm front will gradually north across the area this morning.A cold front will then move across the area later today intotonight and stall near the area into Monday. Another frontalboundary is expected to move across the area later Monday intoMonday night, followed by a final boundary on Tuesday. Highpressure is expected to control the weather for the remainder ofnext week.
-- End Changed Discussion --&&.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Warm front is slowly lifting northward across the region earlythis morning and will clear the area by later this morning.Aloft, one modest shortwave acting on the very moist air movingnorthward has produced showers and thunderstorms, but theselikely clear most of the region toward or shortly after dawn. Weexpect a bit of a lull in the morning, though a few scatteredshowers could still be around. Then, the afternoon looks quitestormy as a slightly more potent shortwave moves in during peakheating with a very moist and increasingly unstable atmospherenow in place. Thus, the stage is set for both flooding rain(with high PW`s, high rain rates and some localized trainingwill be possible) and severe weather (mainly damaging winds,though possibly a stray tornado or a little hail). Main timeframe for the area is afternoon into early evening, with whatwould normally be rush hour currently looking like prime time.With latest CAMS indicating a stronger signal for localizedheavy rain to the north, have included remaining northerncounties in the flood watch. SPC has also widened their slightrisk zone to include most of our region.Things quite down gradually overnight, but there isn`t asignificant front moving in just yet to clear out the moisture,so low clouds and patchy mist/fog could develop overnight.After a day with highs in the low-mid 80s (except 70sshore/Poconos), lows tonight will drop into the upper 60s.
-- End Changed Discussion --&&.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
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On Monday, the front that approaches the area later today willremain near the area as it stalls near the coast. During theday, a secondary boundary is expected to move across the area.This will lead to an increased chance of showers andthunderstorms later in the afternoon and evening, before helpingto push the initial boundary out of the area.On Tuesday, as the fronts from Sunday/Monday move fartheroffshore, a final boundary is expected to move across the areaduring the day and could bring a final push of light showersacross the area. The main thing to notice on Tuesday will be thebelow normal temperatures
-- End Changed Discussion --&&.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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Quiet weather is expected to dominate the long term period ashigh pressure will be moving in from the west through the dayWednesday. The high centers itself near the area Thursday intoFriday, before shifting offshore late Friday into Saturday. Dryweather is expected for the entire extended period Wednesdaythrough Saturday. Below normal temperatures are expectedWednesday, then they inch closer to normal but still belowThursday, returning to right around normal Friday, then backabove normal Saturday. All in all, a nice second half of theweek into the weekend.
-- End Changed Discussion --&&.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.Throug 12Z this morning...Showers increasing in coverage withsome thunderstorms mixed in as well, mainly along the I-95corridor. Expecting a mix of MVFR/IFR conditions as ceilingscome down and reduced visibility in heavier downpours and/orthunderstorms. Winds out of the east/southeast around 5-10 kt.High confidence in restrictions occurring, moderate to lowconfidence in timing and extent of restrictions.Rest of Today...Conditions start out IFR/MVFR and should liftto VFR at most, if not all terminals as model guidance continuesto indicate a lull in showers and thunderstorms for themorning-midday time period. Widespread afternoon showers andthunderstorms expected to continue into the night that willbring IFR conditions at times. Winds out of the southeast around5-10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt possible at KACY. Higher gustspossible in convection as well. Moderate confidence in timing ofconditions lifting to VFR. Low confidence in where bulk ofshowers/thunderstorms set up.Tonight...Restrictions possible for the night as someshowers/thunderstorms linger with patchy fog developing as well.Southeast winds around 5 kt. Low confidence overall.Outlook...Monday-Monday night...Generally VFR. Chance of showers whichcould temporarily lead to lower conditions. West-northwestwinds5-10 knots, shifting to northwest and with gusts 15-20knots possible Monday night.Tuesday...Mostly VFR. Chance of showers which could temporarilylead to lower conditions. Northwest winds 5-10 knots, with gustsaround 15-20 knots.Tuesday night-Thursday...VFR conditions expected. Northwestwinds 5- 10 knots, becoming westerly on Thursday.
-- End Changed Discussion --&&.MARINE...
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Small Craft Advisory in effect for the ocean as seas build to 5to 7 feet due to larger swells from distant Hurricane Ernesto.Sub-SCA conditions expected for Delaware Bay. VSBY restrictionsin showers and thunderstorms beginning this morning and throughtonight. Locally gusty winds possible with thunderstorms.Outlook...Monday-Monday night...Small Craft Advisory conditions continuethrough Monday night as seas remain elevated.Tuesday-Thursday...Conditions expected to lower below advisorylevels Tuesday and remain below advisory levels throughThursday.Rip Currents...Large swells originating from Hurricane Ernesto are propagatingtoward our region through the weekend and potentially into theearly portion of the week.For today...South-southeast winds around 15-20mph. Breakingwaves between 4-7 feet possible with a 11 to 13 second period.As a result, have maintained a HIGH risk for dangerous ripcurrents for both the Jersey Shore and Delaware Beaches.For Monday...Winds go more south/southwesterly and weaken toaround 10-15 MPH. However, wave heights will be around 3 to 6feet with an 11 second period. With the upcoming full moon andlow tide occurring in the afternoon, have elected to extend theHIGH risk for rip currents for the Jersey Shore into Monday.With the wind direction being more offshore, and lower waveheights expected off the Delaware coast, have gone with MODERATErisk for dangerous rip currents at the Delaware Beaches.For specific beach forecasts, visit weather.gov/beach/phi
-- End Changed Discussion --&&.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...Widespread minor coastal flooding is expected this evening, andespecially tomorrow evening as an approaching Full Moon, combinedwith steady south/southeasterly flow, and swells from passingHurricane Ernesto impact tidal communities. A Coastal Flood Advisoryremains in effect for tonight within the tidal Delaware River andupper Delaware Bay. The Advisory was extended through tomorrownight`s high tide cycle for these locations as further minor tidalflooding is expected. In the lower Bay, and along the NJ and DEcoast, only spotty minor tidal flooding is expected for tonight.Tomorrow night`s high tide will bring widespread minor tidalflooding with a Coastal Flood Advisory in effect for all tidal zoneswith the exception of the Chesapeake. Guidance has been underdoinghigh tide levels, as it usually does with passing tropical systems,and have had to nudge up the forecast slightly. Regardless, someinundation of low lying areas is possible tonight and especiallytomorrow night, though not expecting flooding to get to moderatelevels at this time.&&.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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PA...Flood Watch through late tonight for PAZ054-055-060>062-070- 071-101>106. Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 AM EDT Monday for PAZ070-071- 106.NJ...Coastal Flood Advisory until 1 AM EDT Monday for NJZ016. Flood Watch through late tonight for NJZ001-007>010-012-013- 015>019. Coastal Flood Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for NJZ021. Coastal Flood Advisory from 6 PM this evening to midnight EDT tonight for NJZ012>014-020-022>027. High Risk for Rip Currents through Monday evening for NJZ014- 024>026. Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 AM EDT Monday for NJZ017>019.DE...Coastal Flood Advisory until 1 AM EDT Monday for DEZ001. Flood Watch through late tonight for DEZ001. Coastal Flood Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for DEZ002. Coastal Flood Advisory from 6 PM this evening to midnight EDT tonight for DEZ003-004. High Risk for Rip Currents through this evening for DEZ004.MD...None.MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ450>455.
-- End Changed Discussion --&&$$SYNOPSIS...RCM/RobertsonNEAR TERM...Hoeflich/MJL/RCMSHORT TERM...RobertsonLONG TERM...RobertsonAVIATION...Hoeflich/MJL/RCM/RobertsonMARINE...Hoeflich/MJL/RCM/RobertsonTIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...PHI